Al-Shabaab operates as a parallel government across large parts of south-central Somalia, enforcing its ideology through taxation, forced recruitment, and targeted violence against those perceived as opponents. Only people seen as supportive of the government or opposed to Al-Shabaab may be at risk of persecution: peace activists, community leaders, clan elders, electoral delegates, cooperative businesspeople, or those refusing to pay Al-Shabaab taxes.
The July 2025 Home Office CPIN on Mogadishu: Al-Shabaab and Security Situation confirms that the Federal Government of Somalia is willing but unable to provide effective protection from Al-Shabaab. Former government officials, security personnel, judges, and prosecutors face particular targeting risk on return.
Al-Shabaab's renewed offensive through late 2025 into early 2026 has retaken territory previously considered liberated, expanding the areas where Al-Shabaab can identify, track, and target individuals with prior government association or opposition history. Expert witnesses must update their analysis to reflect this evolving territorial control.
Al-Shabaab renewed offensive (2025-2026)
Al-Shabaab (Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen) operates as a parallel government across large parts of south-central Somalia, targeting government supporters, tax refusers, and those who escape forced recruitment. The July 2025 Home Office CPIN confirms the Federal Government is willing but unable to provide effective protection from Al-Shabaab.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What profiles are at risk from Al-Shabaab in Somalia?
Al-Shabaab targets those perceived as supportive of the government or opposed to their rule, including peace activists, community leaders, clan elders, electoral delegates, cooperative businesspeople, and those refusing to pay Al-Shabaab taxes. The July 2025 CPIN confirms the state is willing but unable to provide effective protection from Al-Shabaab.
Has the Al-Shabaab threat changed in 2025-2026?
Al-Shabaab's renewed offensive through late 2025 into early 2026 has retaken territory previously considered liberated, making internal relocation to government-controlled areas less viable than in previous years. Expert witnesses must update their analysis to reflect this evolving situation.