South and central Somalia outside Mogadishu is governed by a different legal analysis from MOJ return claims: the Article 15(c) indiscriminate violence framework under the Qualification Directive. Al-Shabaab controls or contests large areas including lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle, and Lower Shabelle, with civilian casualty levels among the highest in the world.
Al-Shabaab's renewed offensive through late 2025 into early 2026 has retaken territory previously considered liberated, significantly affecting Article 15(c) analysis for appellants from affected areas. Internal relocation to government-controlled areas in the south is less viable than in previous years, and expert witnesses must update their analysis to reflect current territorial control.
Expert witnesses address both the general security situation under Article 15(c) and any individual risk factors specific to the appellant's profile and area of origin. This includes forced recruitment risk, clan minority vulnerability, gender-based persecution, and targeting by Al-Shabaab for perceived government association.
Related Asylum Profiles
Frequently Asked Questions
Is there Article 15(c) risk in south/central Somalia?
Al-Shabaab's renewed offensive in southern Somalia through late 2025 has reversed earlier government gains, retaking territory previously considered liberated. This significantly affects Article 15(c) analysis for those from affected areas of south/central Somalia and undermines internal relocation arguments.
How does south/central Somalia differ from Mogadishu in the asylum analysis?
South/central Somalia outside Mogadishu is governed by a different legal analysis: the Article 15(c) indiscriminate violence framework rather than the MOJ individual risk assessment. Expert witnesses address both the general security situation and any individual risk factors specific to the appellant's profile and area of origin.